How to calculate implied probability in betting – Smarkets Help Centre

How to calculate probability that is implied in Gambling

Finding out how to calculate indicated probability from gambling odds is key to assessing the potential value in a betting market.
Implied probability is a conversion of gambling odds to a percentage. It takes into consideration that the bookmaker margin to express the expected probability of an outcome occurring.
Understanding how to convert betting odds into implied probabilities is essential for gambling as it helps you assess the potential value on a certain industry. Once converted, if the implied probability is less than your evaluation, then it represents betting worth.
The most usual chances formats are American and fractional. The formulas below describe how to convert chances to implied probabilities.
For the examples below We’ll use Smarkets chances for the 2016 Australian Open final between Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic:
Player Decimal odds Fractional chances American odds probability Djokovic 1.20 1/5 – 500 83.3% Murray 5.50 9/2 +450 18.1percent

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