How to calculate implied probability in betting – Smarkets Help Centre

In Gambling, The Way to calculate probability

Learning how to calculate implied probability from betting odds is critical to assessing the potential value in a gambling market.
Implied probability is a conversion of betting odds to a percent. It takes into consideration the bookmaker margin to express the anticipated odds of an outcome happening.
Knowing how to convert betting odds into suggested probabilities is fundamental for gambling as it helps you evaluate the possible value on a particular market. Once converted, if the implied probability is less than your evaluation, then it reflects betting worth.
The most usual odds formats are decimal, American and fractional. The formulas below describe how to convert chances to suggested probabilities.
For the examples below We’ll use Smarkets odds for your 2016 Australian Open final between Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic:
Player Decimal odds chances chances Implied probability Djokovic 1.20 1/5 – 500 83.3% Murray 5.50 9/2 +450 18.1percent

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