This weekend we have an early card Sunday morning (10:30am ET). I do like these ancient cards so that I will wake up and have a DraftKings perspiration and then go out and revel in the remainder of the day once the fights are over. This Sunday’s card will take place in Hamburg, Germany and there are plenty of fighters making their UFC debut. For this reason, I believe we ought to have a large edge this week should we place in the work. Most casual players won’t be doing research on these names they have not heard and will only be throwing in lineups trying to get lucky and hit a big score. I’ll be pursuing the big $15k top prize in the $8 GPP in addition to the Qualifiers. The majority of my investment will be in money games, mainly H2Hs, but I’ll be taking numerous shots at those big prizes. Here are a Couple of plays I enjoy this week as well as my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week — Stack (Anthony Smith $8,700 AND Shogun Rua $7,500)
It is a tough card that Sunday and I believe we will see a good deal of people making errors in cash games. Whenever I think I can guarantee a total 100+ points in a fight, I like to pile it into my cash games and lock those factors. I think this fight is going to be a fun one and I highly doubt it belongs to the scorecards. I believe we can observe multiple knockdowns too which would help, but I think we easily get over 100+ points combined with both of these men. Let’s let everybody else make the errors and we could lock in a 100+ points and a win, and then we just have to locate another 3 wins we are confident in.
GPP drama of this week — Manny Bermudez ($9,200)
I believe that this matchup was set up for Bermudez a win. He has a very slick entry game and when this fight goes to the ground I think he can pick up advance points quickly and find a submission. Grant has had issues with submission defense in his career and even when he’s winning on the feet, he still shoots for takedowns every struggle. I believe if Manny can not get the takedown himself, Grant will gradually go to it himself and it will cost him. I believe we can observe a 1st round entry here and that should easily get that the 10x+ we are searching for in his $9.2k price label.
Underdog drama of this week — Shogun Rua ($7,500)
If Shogun can win this battle he’ll easily pay off this price tag. He’s got 100-point upside and with a $7.5k salary that will certainly place him on the winning lineup if he can get there. Anthony Smith continues to be pumped more instances than Shogun and has fought much worse competition. I wouldn’t be surprised if Shogun is able to get a KO here against Smith, who is taking this fight on short notice. Shogun has noticeably slowed down in the last couple of years but I think he still has enough in the tank to possibly pull off an upset victory here. I do need exposure to both guys in GPPs, but I think you need some exposure to Rua if you are making numerous lineups.
Fade of the week — Nick Hein ($8,500)
I have a number of fades this week and I am going with a bigger player pool in hopes of my selections being right and I will hit the ideal combo. It is tough to choose one favorite fade this week but I shall pick Nick Hein. I do think Nick Hein will win this battle, and I believe he’ll use takedowns to get the decision win here. So, you would think that seems good on DraftKings since wrestling racks up points. However, he doesn’t chain together takedowns and that he usually ends up with just 1 or two in his UFC wins. He does not have much completing ability and that I really don’t see him getting a submission. However, I believe we will see 2-3 takedowns here and him grinding his way into a Unanimous Decision victory just as we’ve seen from him previously. Hein includes 4 UFC wins and these are his DraftKings game logs for those wins: 53 points, 58 points, 65 points, and 71 points. At $8.5k, I’m not interested in getting any DK investment on Hein with these scores. That is why he’s my fade of this week.
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